Last 20 graded predictions — hits and misses, unfiltered
Per model — the whole settled record
How to read this (and what we don't claim)
Hit rate = share of graded predictions where the predicted direction matched the realized move at horizon close. Coin-flip baseline is 50%. Confidence is the model's own stated probability — comparing avg confidence of hits vs misses tells you whether the model knows what it knows.
Not measured here: slippage, fees, taxes, position sizing. This is signal-direction accuracy, not a P&L statement. Full calibration math (Brier score, confidence bands, daily trend) lives on the calibration dashboard; a shareable card is at /track-record/og.png.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Research & education only — not investment advice.
